Devon Local Medical Committee

DH - Heatwave plan for England 2008 - 14 May '08

The Plan’s purpose is to enhance resilience in the event of a heatwave.  It is an important component of overall emergency planning; and will become increasingly relevant in adapting to the impact of climate change.

Intro by the CMO - Sir Liam Donaldson

Why this plan is needed

Climate Change is increasingly acknowledged to be a serious threat to population health. These impacts are highlighted in the updated report The Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2008 (www.dh.gov.uk/en/PublicationsAndStatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_080702). Additionally, the forthcoming Climate Change Act will make it a requirement for all statutory sectors, including the health sector, to have robust adaptation plans in place. TheNational Heatwave Plan is an important contribution to this work.

World Health Day, 7th April 2008, featured climate change and health. To support this work, I have recently proposed a resolution for Ministries of Health of Nation States at the World Health Assembly (World Health Organization) to vote upon to ensure adaptation plans are in place to reduce the health impacts of climate change.

Further information on climate change and health can be found in the recently published DH guidance document and summary, available at www.dh.gov.uk/en/publicationsandstatistics/DH_082690.

Climate change means that heatwaves are likely to become more common in England. By the 2080s, it is predicted that an event similar to that experienced in England in 2003 will happen every year.

In Northern France in August 2003, unprecedentedly high day and night-time temperatures for a period of three weeks resulted in 15,000 excess deaths. The vast majority of these were among older people. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 4 per cent increase over baseline mortality (680 excess deaths) in England and Wales between 16 July and 28 July 2006 when compared with the average for the same period from 2001 to 2005. This may be an underestimate.  This compares to an excess mortality of approximately 2000 people, representing 16 per cent of all deaths in the August 2003 heatwave.

Excess deaths are not just deaths of those who would have died anyway in the next few weeks or months due to illness or old age. There is strong evidence that these summer deaths are indeed ‘extra’ and are the result of heat-related conditions.

In the next few years, the risk of a heatwave in England as severe as that in France in 2003 is very low – less than 0.1per cent. However, with the effects of climate change taking place, the frequency and temperatures of heatwaves are predicted to increase over time. During relatively mild heatwaves, excess death rates are significantly, but avoidably, higher in this country. Timely preventive measures can reduce these excess rates. In contrast to deaths associated with cold snaps in winter, the rise in mortality as a result of very warm weather follows very sharply – within one or two days of the temperature rising.

This means that:
  • by the time a heatwave starts, the window of opportunity for effective action is very short indeed and, therefore;
  • proper preparedness is of the essence.
This plan is a revision of last year’s and draws on the 2006 and 2007 experience, an evaluation of the response, and recent evidence from the World Health

Sir Liam Donaldson
Chief Medical Officer

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